NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD ALA
Points 73.4 80.8
Total Points   154.2
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.8 26.3
Points From Free Throws 20.9 17.0
Shooting MD ALA
Field Goals Made 23.5 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.2 60.7
Field Goal % 40.3% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 26.7% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 20.9 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 28.5 22.3
Free Throw % 73.1% 76.4%
Ball Control MD ALA
Rebounds 35.5 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 11.8
Turnovers 10.1 11.3
Blocked Shots 4.5 5.0
Steals 6.2 5.5
Fouls 17.6 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD ALA
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 75.0 74.2
% of Possessions with MD ALA
2 Point Attempt 42.7% 40.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 29.4%
Player Fouled 25.7% 23.9%
Turnover 13.7% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD ALA
Shot Blocked 8.5% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 33.0%