NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD IND
Points 66.2 65.4
Total Points   131.6
Points From 2-Pointers 29.9 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 12.1
Points From Free Throws 16.2 13.7
Shooting MD IND
Field Goals Made 21.6 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 53.4
Field Goal % 37.1% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.9 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 43.0% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 4.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 13.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 29.5%
Free Throws Made 16.2 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 20.8
Free Throw % 73.1% 65.9%
Ball Control MD IND
Rebounds 36.5 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 8.5
Turnovers 9.2 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.9
Steals 6.7 4.2
Fouls 17.0 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD IND
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 66.0
% of Possessions with MD IND
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 17.2%
Player Fouled 22.8% 24.5%
Turnover 13.2% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD IND
Shot Blocked 7.5% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 25.5%