NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD MSU
Points 61.1 66.1
Total Points   127.2
Points From 2-Pointers 27.9 37.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 15.7
Points From Free Throws 14.8 13.0
Shooting MD MSU
Field Goals Made 20.1 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 56.8
Field Goal % 37.8% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 45.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 15.8
3 Point Shooting % 28.0% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 14.8 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 17.9
Free Throw % 73.1% 72.5%
Ball Control MD MSU
Rebounds 34.5 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.2
Turnovers 11.2 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.2
Steals 4.7 5.9
Fouls 15.3 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD MSU
Total Possessions 67.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 67.6
% of Possessions with MD MSU
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 51.9%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 20.1%
Player Fouled 23.7% 22.9%
Turnover 16.7% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD MSU
Shot Blocked 7.5% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 29.1%