NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MD MICH
Points 72.6 64.8
Total Points   137.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 33.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.8 17.5
Points From Free Throws 15.8 14.1
Shooting MD MICH
Field Goals Made 25.4 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 54.6
Field Goal % 43.5% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 18.2
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 15.8 14.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 19.9
Free Throw % 73.1% 70.8%
Ball Control MD MICH
Rebounds 36.2 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.7
Turnovers 8.9 12.5
Blocked Shots 4.7 3.6
Steals 6.8 3.7
Fouls 16.1 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MD MICH
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.4 66.7
% of Possessions with MD MICH
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 22.5%
Player Fouled 23.3% 23.1%
Turnover 12.8% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MD MICH
Shot Blocked 6.7% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 30.0% 27.7%