NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCD BU
Points 69.6 60.0
Total Points   129.6
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 27.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 19.4
Points From Free Throws 17.0 13.2
Shooting UCD BU
Field Goals Made 22.7 20.2
Field Goals Attempted 50.8 53.0
Field Goal % 44.6% 38.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 13.7
2 Pointers Attempted 30.3 32.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 42.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 17.0 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 18.2
Free Throw % 76.1% 72.2%
Ball Control UCD BU
Rebounds 33.5 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.1 9.1
Turnovers 11.3 13.1
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.8
Steals 7.5 6.6
Fouls 15.4 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCD BU
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 64.3 64.5
% of Possessions with UCD BU
2 Point Attempt 39.4% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 26.1%
Player Fouled 25.6% 22.5%
Turnover 16.5% 19.1%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 11.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCD BU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 25.6%