NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WOF CIT
Points 75.6 69.9
Total Points   145.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 30.5 20.5
Points From Free Throws 7.8 14.2
Shooting WOF CIT
Field Goals Made 28.8 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 54.8
Field Goal % 49.1% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.6 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 60.5% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.2 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 27.8 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 7.8 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 12.6 19.9
Free Throw % 61.9% 71.4%
Ball Control WOF CIT
Rebounds 34.8 31.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 7.6
Turnovers 10.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.1
Steals 4.2 5.0
Fouls 15.3 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WOF CIT
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 66.4
% of Possessions with WOF CIT
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 35.8% 26.2%
Player Fouled 18.5% 22.6%
Turnover 14.9% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken WOF CIT
Shot Blocked 3.9% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 22.6%