NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST ACU
Points 77.6 69.7
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 45.7 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 15.9
Points From Free Throws 15.0 14.9
Shooting TST ACU
Field Goals Made 28.5 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 56.7
Field Goal % 49.0% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 41.6 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.6 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 15.0 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 20.3
Free Throw % 75.8% 73.4%
Ball Control TST ACU
Rebounds 35.2 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 9.3
Turnovers 10.9 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.0
Steals 7.1 5.6
Fouls 16.0 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Tarleton St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST ACU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 69.2
% of Possessions with TST ACU
2 Point Attempt 50.5% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 18.6%
Player Fouled 21.9% 22.3%
Turnover 15.1% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST ACU
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.8% 26.7%