NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM CIN
Points 71.1 81.0
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 40.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 29.2
Points From Free Throws 14.8 11.5
Shooting MEM CIN
Field Goals Made 24.6 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 66.9
Field Goal % 40.6% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 52.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 28.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 14.8 11.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 16.7
Free Throw % 72.7% 68.9%
Ball Control MEM CIN
Rebounds 33.7 44.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.2 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 16.6
Turnovers 11.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.7 6.1
Steals 7.2 6.1
Fouls 13.3 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Cincinnati

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM CIN
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 78.3
% of Possessions with MEM CIN
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 31.0%
Player Fouled 19.5% 18.1%
Turnover 16.0% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM CIN
Shot Blocked 9.3% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.3% 41.7%