NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JKST TXST
Points 65.7 74.2
Total Points   139.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 43.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 15.8
Points From Free Throws 15.0 15.5
Shooting JKST TXST
Field Goals Made 22.7 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 55.3
Field Goal % 39.9% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 21.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.2 15.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 15.0 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 22.0
Free Throw % 71.9% 70.3%
Ball Control JKST TXST
Rebounds 32.8 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 10.4
Turnovers 12.4 12.6
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.7
Steals 7.5 6.8
Fouls 15.1 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Texas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JKST TXST
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 69.1
% of Possessions with JKST TXST
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.5% 18.1%
Player Fouled 20.8% 21.1%
Turnover 17.3% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken JKST TXST
Shot Blocked 6.9% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 32.4%