NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOWS UVM
Points 61.1 62.7
Total Points   123.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.8 26.3
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 24.6
Points From Free Throws 11.9 11.8
Shooting TOWS UVM
Field Goals Made 21.7 21.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 52.8
Field Goal % 37.8% 40.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.9 13.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 29.2
2 Point Shooting % 41.4% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.5% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 11.9 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 16.4
Free Throw % 66.3% 71.9%
Ball Control TOWS UVM
Rebounds 40.7 31.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 6.0
Turnovers 9.0 8.6
Blocked Shots 5.0 3.9
Steals 4.9 5.0
Fouls 14.9 12.1

Playing Style Advantage: Vermont

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOWS UVM
Total Possessions 64.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 61.7
% of Possessions with TOWS UVM
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 32.6%
Player Fouled 18.8% 23.2%
Turnover 13.9% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOWS UVM
Shot Blocked 7.7% 8.9%
Offensive Rebound 34.2% 18.0%