NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM SMC
Points 66.0 79.0
Total Points   144.9
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.4 29.2
Points From Free Throws 15.7 11.3
Shooting MEM SMC
Field Goals Made 22.4 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 62.6
Field Goal % 41.4% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 16.5 26.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 15.7 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 16.8
Free Throw % 72.7% 67.1%
Ball Control MEM SMC
Rebounds 28.5 42.6
Rebounds - Defensive 21.3 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.2 15.3
Turnovers 10.7 11.2
Blocked Shots 3.4 5.0
Steals 6.6 6.4
Fouls 13.9 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM SMC
Total Possessions 69.8
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 73.9
% of Possessions with MEM SMC
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 30.7%
Player Fouled 23.8% 19.9%
Turnover 15.3% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM SMC
Shot Blocked 8.1% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 41.7%