NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST PEAY
Points 73.3 76.2
Total Points   149.6
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 20.0
Points From Free Throws 19.3 19.3
Shooting TNST PEAY
Field Goals Made 24.5 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.7 56.2
Field Goal % 47.3% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.3% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 19.3 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 27.3
Free Throw % 76.1% 70.9%
Ball Control TNST PEAY
Rebounds 33.3 32.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 11.1
Turnovers 11.8 8.7
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.1
Steals 4.1 7.2
Fouls 18.0 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST PEAY
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.2 72.6
% of Possessions with TNST PEAY
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 20.4% 23.5%
Player Fouled 24.9% 25.6%
Turnover 16.9% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST PEAY
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 31.2%