NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB USA
Points 91.1 61.3
Total Points   152.4
Points From 2-Pointers 49.4 28.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 17.4
Points From Free Throws 19.1 15.9
Shooting AUB USA
Field Goals Made 32.2 19.8
Field Goals Attempted 59.4 58.5
Field Goal % 54.3% 33.9%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 14.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 65.7% 34.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 31.7%
Free Throws Made 19.1 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 25.5 21.3
Free Throw % 74.8% 74.7%
Ball Control AUB USA
Rebounds 43.8 27.6
Rebounds - Defensive 33.0 20.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 7.5
Turnovers 9.4 11.7
Blocked Shots 8.2 1.9
Steals 7.1 5.5
Fouls 15.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Auburn

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB USA
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 75.3 69.6
% of Possessions with AUB USA
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 21.6%
Player Fouled 23.1% 20.7%
Turnover 12.7% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB USA
Shot Blocked 3.5% 13.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.0% 18.5%