NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM UCF
Points 70.5 76.0
Total Points   146.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 34.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.0 26.0
Points From Free Throws 19.4 15.1
Shooting MEM UCF
Field Goals Made 21.9 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 61.6
Field Goal % 40.3% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 17.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.4 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 47.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 19.4 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 26.7 22.0
Free Throw % 72.7% 68.6%
Ball Control MEM UCF
Rebounds 34.9 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 14.6
Turnovers 13.9 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.7 6.4
Steals 7.0 8.1
Fouls 15.9 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM UCF
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.0 76.0
% of Possessions with MEM UCF
2 Point Attempt 37.4% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 28.1%
Player Fouled 24.4% 21.6%
Turnover 18.9% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 11.0% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM UCF
Shot Blocked 10.6% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 37.2%