NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LSU TEX
Points 70.4 77.6
Total Points   148.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 41.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 21.9
Points From Free Throws 15.7 14.3
Shooting LSU TEX
Field Goals Made 23.9 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 55.7 59.4
Field Goal % 43.0% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 45.9% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 15.7 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 18.7
Free Throw % 73.3% 76.5%
Ball Control LSU TEX
Rebounds 33.6 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 9.4
Turnovers 12.6 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.5
Steals 6.3 7.7
Fouls 14.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Texas

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LSU TEX
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 70.8
% of Possessions with LSU TEX
2 Point Attempt 45.1% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 26.0%
Player Fouled 20.8% 19.9%
Turnover 17.5% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken LSU TEX
Shot Blocked 7.7% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 27.1% 28.0%