NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM SMU
Points 78.0 79.4
Total Points   157.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.1 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 27.8
Points From Free Throws 16.6 13.0
Shooting MEM SMU
Field Goals Made 26.8 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 67.9
Field Goal % 44.7% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 16.6 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 18.9
Free Throw % 72.7% 68.6%
Ball Control MEM SMU
Rebounds 37.4 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 17.4
Turnovers 12.6 11.2
Blocked Shots 6.0 6.1
Steals 7.5 7.7
Fouls 13.4 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: S Methodist

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM SMU
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.8 79.8
% of Possessions with MEM SMU
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 28.8%
Player Fouled 21.9% 18.2%
Turnover 17.1% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM SMU
Shot Blocked 9.2% 10.3%
Offensive Rebound 35.4% 41.4%