NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB L-IL
Points 77.3 61.6
Total Points   138.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 26.5
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 17.7
Points From Free Throws 19.7 17.4
Shooting AUB L-IL
Field Goals Made 25.4 19.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 55.5
Field Goal % 45.1% 34.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 13.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 36.2
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 36.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 19.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 19.7 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 26.3 25.7
Free Throw % 74.8% 67.6%
Ball Control AUB L-IL
Rebounds 39.8 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 10.1
Turnovers 10.4 12.9
Blocked Shots 8.0 3.8
Steals 7.0 6.6
Fouls 17.7 20.0

Playing Style Advantage: Auburn

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB L-IL
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.1 70.0
% of Possessions with AUB L-IL
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 42.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.5% 22.5%
Player Fouled 27.5% 24.3%
Turnover 14.3% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB L-IL
Shot Blocked 7.2% 14.5%
Offensive Rebound 28.1% 25.1%