NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB ARK
Points 84.0 68.9
Total Points   153.0
Points From 2-Pointers 41.7 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 12.5
Points From Free Throws 22.2 25.5
Shooting AUB ARK
Field Goals Made 27.6 19.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 53.4
Field Goal % 46.6% 36.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.9 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 39.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 4.2
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 28.4%
Free Throws Made 22.2 25.5
Free Throws Attempted 29.7 33.3
Free Throw % 74.8% 76.5%
Ball Control AUB ARK
Rebounds 39.6 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.1
Turnovers 9.7 11.8
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.1
Steals 6.4 5.9
Fouls 21.0 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB ARK
Total Possessions 75.7
Effective Scoring Chances 76.8 73.0
% of Possessions with AUB ARK
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 16.8%
Player Fouled 25.7% 27.8%
Turnover 12.8% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB ARK
Shot Blocked 7.8% 8.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 24.0%