NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB MISS
Points 82.4 67.4
Total Points   149.9
Points From 2-Pointers 41.1 31.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.5 16.9
Points From Free Throws 17.8 19.4
Shooting AUB MISS
Field Goals Made 28.4 21.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 57.8
Field Goal % 47.4% 36.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.9 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 38.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 17.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 17.8 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.8 26.6
Free Throw % 74.8% 73.0%
Ball Control AUB MISS
Rebounds 40.8 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 12.0
Turnovers 10.3 10.4
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.2
Steals 6.2 7.0
Fouls 17.0 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB MISS
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 74.4 73.8
% of Possessions with AUB MISS
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.3% 20.2%
Player Fouled 22.0% 23.6%
Turnover 14.2% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB MISS
Shot Blocked 7.5% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 35.9% 29.7%