NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TNST USI
Points 71.6 68.4
Total Points   140.0
Points From 2-Pointers 31.0 28.9
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 17.7
Points From Free Throws 23.7 21.9
Shooting TNST USI
Field Goals Made 21.1 20.3
Field Goals Attempted 48.1 51.5
Field Goal % 43.9% 39.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 14.4
2 Pointers Attempted 30.4 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 43.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 23.7 21.9
Free Throws Attempted 31.1 29.1
Free Throw % 76.1% 75.1%
Ball Control TNST USI
Rebounds 32.7 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.5
Turnovers 12.6 12.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.7
Steals 6.2 6.5
Fouls 20.3 21.1

Playing Style Advantage: TN State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TNST USI
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 67.1 69.6
% of Possessions with TNST USI
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 22.3%
Player Fouled 29.4% 28.2%
Turnover 17.5% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TNST USI
Shot Blocked 5.3% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 29.7%