NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AUB MIZZ
Points 84.2 64.3
Total Points   148.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 29.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.0 15.6
Points From Free Throws 22.3 19.4
Shooting AUB MIZZ
Field Goals Made 26.8 19.9
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 55.6
Field Goal % 48.2% 35.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 14.7
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 55.4% 39.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 28.0%
Free Throws Made 22.3 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 29.9 24.6
Free Throw % 74.8% 78.9%
Ball Control AUB MIZZ
Rebounds 40.8 30.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 20.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 9.8
Turnovers 10.6 11.7
Blocked Shots 5.2 3.6
Steals 6.5 6.8
Fouls 17.8 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AUB MIZZ
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.9 70.1
% of Possessions with AUB MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 38.7% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 22.2%
Player Fouled 27.2% 24.7%
Turnover 14.7% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken AUB MIZZ
Shot Blocked 6.6% 9.4%
Offensive Rebound 38.1% 25.8%