NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LSU MIZZ
Points 77.6 72.4
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.2 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 25.2 21.9
Points From Free Throws 20.3 15.5
Shooting LSU MIZZ
Field Goals Made 24.5 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 54.2 57.0
Field Goal % 45.2% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 32.2 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 52.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 20.3 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 27.7 19.6
Free Throw % 73.3% 78.9%
Ball Control LSU MIZZ
Rebounds 37.6 30.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.7 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 8.6
Turnovers 12.7 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.8
Steals 6.9 8.3
Fouls 15.5 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LSU MIZZ
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 69.1
% of Possessions with LSU MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 37.6% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 29.1%
Player Fouled 24.1% 21.5%
Turnover 17.6% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 11.5% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken LSU MIZZ
Shot Blocked 8.6% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 35.2% 25.1%