NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSF CSN
Points 67.8 70.1
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 27.6 39.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 14.7
Points From Free Throws 17.9 15.4
Shooting CSF CSN
Field Goals Made 21.3 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 56.2
Field Goal % 39.7% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 29.7 39.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.4% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.8 16.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 17.9 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 25.1 22.7
Free Throw % 71.1% 67.7%
Ball Control CSF CSN
Rebounds 33.2 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 28.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 10.1
Turnovers 11.8 12.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.8
Steals 7.1 6.0
Fouls 17.5 19.7

Playing Style Advantage: Cal St Nrdge

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSF CSN
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 68.8 70.5
% of Possessions with CSF CSN
2 Point Attempt 36.4% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 19.5%
Player Fouled 27.1% 24.1%
Turnover 16.2% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSF CSN
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 28.6%