NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSF CP
Points 67.9 60.7
Total Points   128.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 29.3
Points From 3-Pointers 15.4 18.5
Points From Free Throws 17.7 12.9
Shooting CSF CP
Field Goals Made 22.5 20.8
Field Goals Attempted 51.3 53.1
Field Goal % 43.9% 39.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 14.7
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 43.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 15.7 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 17.7 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.9 18.2
Free Throw % 71.1% 70.9%
Ball Control CSF CP
Rebounds 36.5 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 23.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 7.8
Turnovers 10.6 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.9
Steals 6.2 4.6
Fouls 16.0 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Poly

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSF CP
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 64.2
% of Possessions with CSF CP
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 25.5%
Player Fouled 25.5% 23.6%
Turnover 15.7% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSF CP
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.0% 22.3%