NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STT IDST
Points 69.4 64.9
Total Points   134.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 17.8
Points From Free Throws 12.1 11.3
Shooting STT IDST
Field Goals Made 25.1 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 50.2 51.3
Field Goal % 50.0% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 12.1 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 16.1
Free Throw % 71.9% 70.0%
Ball Control STT IDST
Rebounds 28.5 29.4
Rebounds - Defensive 22.6 21.7
Rebounds - Offensive 5.9 7.7
Turnovers 10.0 10.3
Blocked Shots 1.4 3.0
Steals 5.6 5.4
Fouls 15.8 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: St. Thomas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STT IDST
Total Possessions 64.2
Effective Scoring Chances 60.1 61.7
% of Possessions with STT IDST
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 25.5%
Player Fouled 23.5% 24.5%
Turnover 15.6% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken STT IDST
Shot Blocked 5.9% 2.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 25.5%