NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STT NDSU
Points 75.6 68.3
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 21.3
Points From Free Throws 11.0 11.0
Shooting STT NDSU
Field Goals Made 28.2 25.1
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 50.3
Field Goal % 52.3% 49.9%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 61.2% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.6% 38.1%
Free Throws Made 11.0 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.3 14.8
Free Throw % 71.9% 74.1%
Ball Control STT NDSU
Rebounds 27.2 28.4
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 22.9
Rebounds - Offensive 5.4 5.6
Turnovers 7.6 11.6
Blocked Shots 2.2 1.1
Steals 5.6 3.1
Fouls 14.8 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: St. Thomas

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STT NDSU
Total Possessions 65.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 59.4
% of Possessions with STT NDSU
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 25.9%
Player Fouled 21.2% 22.6%
Turnover 11.6% 17.7%
Opponent Steal 4.8% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken STT NDSU
Shot Blocked 2.1% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 20.4%