NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STT MTST
Points 70.9 70.2
Total Points   141.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 25.9
Points From Free Throws 13.8 10.4
Shooting STT MTST
Field Goals Made 24.8 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 51.5 51.7
Field Goal % 48.2% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 30.3 29.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 13.8 10.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 14.4
Free Throw % 71.9% 72.4%
Ball Control STT MTST
Rebounds 29.9 28.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 23.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 5.0
Turnovers 10.3 11.6
Blocked Shots 1.6 2.0
Steals 5.6 6.2
Fouls 15.3 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Montana St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STT MTST
Total Possessions 67.2
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 60.6
% of Possessions with STT MTST
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 30.4%
Player Fouled 25.2% 22.8%
Turnover 15.4% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 9.2% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken STT MTST
Shot Blocked 3.9% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 17.5%