NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USD SCU
Points 69.2 79.8
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.6 23.7
Points From Free Throws 16.4 17.1
Shooting USD SCU
Field Goals Made 23.3 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 57.7
Field Goal % 40.2% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.0 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 56.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.9% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 16.4 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 24.6
Free Throw % 72.1% 69.6%
Ball Control USD SCU
Rebounds 30.9 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.6
Turnovers 10.7 12.6
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.1
Steals 7.0 5.3
Fouls 18.1 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USD SCU
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 73.6
% of Possessions with USD SCU
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 39.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.0% 26.8%
Player Fouled 21.9% 24.5%
Turnover 14.5% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken USD SCU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 36.2%