NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USD SMC
Points 58.0 79.5
Total Points   137.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.9 40.6
Points From 3-Pointers 14.5 23.5
Points From Free Throws 13.6 15.4
Shooting USD SMC
Field Goals Made 19.8 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 52.6 57.7
Field Goal % 37.7% 48.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.0 20.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 39.3% 57.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 14.5 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 13.6 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 23.0
Free Throw % 72.1% 67.1%
Ball Control USD SMC
Rebounds 26.5 42.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.5 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.0 13.5
Turnovers 11.8 10.3
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.5
Steals 5.7 7.7
Fouls 16.2 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: St Marys

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USD SMC
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 72.4
% of Possessions with USD SMC
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 42.4%
3 Point Attempt 18.8% 26.4%
Player Fouled 21.8% 23.4%
Turnover 17.1% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 11.1% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken USD SMC
Shot Blocked 8.0% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 16.9% 39.6%