NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USD CSF
Points 68.9 69.2
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.0 31.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 19.0
Points From Free Throws 15.3 18.3
Shooting USD CSF
Field Goals Made 23.4 22.3
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 51.8
Field Goal % 42.4% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 16.5 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 31.8%
Free Throws Made 15.3 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 25.8
Free Throw % 72.1% 71.1%
Ball Control USD CSF
Rebounds 34.7 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.3
Turnovers 12.4 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.1
Steals 6.5 7.2
Fouls 18.2 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USD CSF
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 67.4
% of Possessions with USD CSF
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 24.7%
Player Fouled 22.0% 25.4%
Turnover 17.4% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken USD CSF
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 24.5%