NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CWM JMU
Points 63.0 83.5
Total Points   146.6
Points From 2-Pointers 27.3 44.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 23.3
Points From Free Throws 14.3 15.8
Shooting CWM JMU
Field Goals Made 20.8 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 57.6
Field Goal % 38.1% 52.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 22.2
2 Pointers Attempted 28.9 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 60.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 20.9
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 14.3 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 22.7
Free Throw % 67.7% 69.7%
Ball Control CWM JMU
Rebounds 31.3 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.6
Turnovers 12.0 8.2
Blocked Shots 1.6 3.8
Steals 4.0 7.4
Fouls 15.6 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Wm & Mary

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CWM JMU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 71.6
% of Possessions with CWM JMU
2 Point Attempt 35.7% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 26.0%
Player Fouled 22.7% 22.2%
Turnover 17.0% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CWM JMU
Shot Blocked 6.7% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 30.3%