NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSD CAL
Points 74.8 79.1
Total Points   153.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.1 28.1
Points From Free Throws 13.8 12.7
Shooting UCSD CAL
Field Goals Made 26.2 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 60.8
Field Goal % 42.9% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 36.0 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 36.5%
Free Throws Made 13.8 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 17.3
Free Throw % 74.1% 73.2%
Ball Control UCSD CAL
Rebounds 34.6 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.8
Turnovers 8.1 8.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.5
Steals 4.5 4.2
Fouls 14.4 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: UCSD

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSD CAL
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 71.4
% of Possessions with UCSD CAL
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 31.7%
Player Fouled 20.5% 20.2%
Turnover 11.4% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSD CAL
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 25.2%