NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSD USD
Points 77.7 73.1
Total Points   150.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.6 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.9 22.7
Points From Free Throws 17.2 12.7
Shooting UCSD USD
Field Goals Made 25.9 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 57.3
Field Goal % 44.7% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.1% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 17.2 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 17.7
Free Throw % 74.1% 72.1%
Ball Control UCSD USD
Rebounds 35.4 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 7.9
Turnovers 9.7 11.4
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.4
Steals 6.5 5.0
Fouls 14.4 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSD USD
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 68.1
% of Possessions with UCSD USD
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 25.2%
Player Fouled 24.1% 20.1%
Turnover 13.6% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 9.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSD USD
Shot Blocked 7.7% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 23.6%