NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCSD PEPP
Points 75.8 73.3
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 21.6
Points From Free Throws 13.9 11.9
Shooting UCSD PEPP
Field Goals Made 27.1 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.9 56.5
Field Goal % 47.7% 48.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 13.9 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 17.0
Free Throw % 74.1% 69.8%
Ball Control UCSD PEPP
Rebounds 32.3 32.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 7.9
Turnovers 8.6 9.5
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.1
Steals 5.1 3.5
Fouls 15.6 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: UCSD

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCSD PEPP
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 67.1
% of Possessions with UCSD PEPP
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 24.6%
Player Fouled 21.8% 22.8%
Turnover 12.5% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 5.1% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCSD PEPP
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 24.3%