NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR MOSU
Points 70.5 73.2
Total Points   143.7
Points From 2-Pointers 40.4 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 22.1
Points From Free Throws 10.6 15.2
Shooting UALR MOSU
Field Goals Made 26.7 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 64.6 59.9
Field Goal % 41.4% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 20.2 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.7 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 10.6 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 21.6
Free Throw % 73.1% 70.3%
Ball Control UALR MOSU
Rebounds 37.2 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 11.5
Turnovers 9.3 10.4
Blocked Shots 5.2 4.1
Steals 5.0 4.0
Fouls 14.9 12.5

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR MOSU
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.2 72.7
% of Possessions with UALR MOSU
2 Point Attempt 53.1% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 23.6% 27.6%
Player Fouled 17.4% 20.8%
Turnover 13.0% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR MOSU
Shot Blocked 6.9% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 30.3%