NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY WCU
Points 73.5 75.2
Total Points   148.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.9 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.0 23.5
Points From Free Throws 18.6 14.0
Shooting TROY WCU
Field Goals Made 24.3 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 58.5
Field Goal % 41.7% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.0% 49.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.3 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 18.6 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 20.0
Free Throw % 73.4% 70.0%
Ball Control TROY WCU
Rebounds 34.8 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 10.4
Turnovers 9.1 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.8
Steals 7.7 4.2
Fouls 15.9 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY WCU
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 71.1
% of Possessions with TROY WCU
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 24.3%
Player Fouled 23.2% 21.9%
Turnover 12.5% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY WCU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 29.7%