NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY FLA
Points 75.3 88.9
Total Points   164.2
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 43.8
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 22.7
Points From Free Throws 19.7 22.4
Shooting TROY FLA
Field Goals Made 24.4 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 59.5
Field Goal % 40.0% 49.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 43.4% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 19.7 22.4
Free Throws Attempted 26.8 30.6
Free Throw % 73.4% 73.2%
Ball Control TROY FLA
Rebounds 32.5 42.5
Rebounds - Defensive 21.3 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 13.5
Turnovers 11.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.7 5.7
Steals 9.1 7.8
Fouls 19.4 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY FLA
Total Possessions 77.3
Effective Scoring Chances 76.7 78.9
% of Possessions with TROY FLA
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.9% 22.1%
Player Fouled 21.7% 25.1%
Turnover 15.2% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY FLA
Shot Blocked 9.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 38.8%