NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY IND
Points 70.0 76.5
Total Points   146.5
Points From 2-Pointers 27.4 43.7
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 15.5
Points From Free Throws 16.1 17.3
Shooting TROY IND
Field Goals Made 22.5 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 52.0
Field Goal % 37.3% 51.9%
2 Pointers Made 13.7 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 40.4% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 5.2
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 14.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 16.1 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 26.3
Free Throw % 73.4% 65.9%
Ball Control TROY IND
Rebounds 33.5 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 8.9
Turnovers 11.2 13.6
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.0
Steals 10.6 5.8
Fouls 19.5 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY IND
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 74.0 68.5
% of Possessions with TROY IND
2 Point Attempt 39.0% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 17.8%
Player Fouled 20.1% 26.6%
Turnover 15.3% 18.6%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 14.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY IND
Shot Blocked 7.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 29.4%