NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USC TCU
Points 74.1 75.4
Total Points   149.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.5 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.1 23.4
Points From Free Throws 14.6 16.0
Shooting USC TCU
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 61.8
Field Goal % 47.6% 41.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 41.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 43.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 19.1 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 14.6 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 21.9
Free Throw % 69.5% 72.7%
Ball Control USC TCU
Rebounds 33.9 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 13.3
Turnovers 14.0 12.1
Blocked Shots 5.6 3.6
Steals 6.9 8.3
Fouls 15.0 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: USC

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USC TCU
Total Possessions 74.0
Effective Scoring Chances 68.4 75.2
% of Possessions with USC TCU
2 Point Attempt 43.5% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 22.3%
Player Fouled 21.4% 20.2%
Turnover 18.9% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken USC TCU
Shot Blocked 6.0% 10.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 34.3%