NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY CHAT
Points 77.5 77.3
Total Points   154.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.0 30.8
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 30.8
Points From Free Throws 16.8 15.7
Shooting TROY CHAT
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 54.5
Field Goal % 41.1% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 27.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.1% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 16.8 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 20.8
Free Throw % 73.4% 75.3%
Ball Control TROY CHAT
Rebounds 35.2 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 22.8 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 8.8
Turnovers 9.5 14.2
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.1
Steals 10.2 6.3
Fouls 16.0 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY CHAT
Total Possessions 73.0
Effective Scoring Chances 76.0 67.6
% of Possessions with TROY CHAT
2 Point Attempt 39.7% 32.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 33.0%
Player Fouled 21.3% 21.9%
Turnover 13.0% 19.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 14.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY CHAT
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 31.3% 27.9%