NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY APP
Points 69.1 78.6
Total Points   147.7
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 44.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 19.2
Points From Free Throws 13.1 14.8
Shooting TROY APP
Field Goals Made 24.2 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 66.4 58.8
Field Goal % 36.5% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 43.5 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 38.4% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 13.1 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 21.3
Free Throw % 73.4% 69.5%
Ball Control TROY APP
Rebounds 36.7 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.8 31.0
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 10.1
Turnovers 10.7 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.5 6.2
Steals 9.8 6.5
Fouls 16.1 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Troy

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY APP
Total Possessions 74.5
Effective Scoring Chances 76.8 72.3
% of Possessions with TROY APP
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 20.8%
Player Fouled 17.1% 21.6%
Turnover 14.3% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 13.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY APP
Shot Blocked 10.6% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 29.7%