NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR ARST
Points 76.9 78.6
Total Points   155.5
Points From 2-Pointers 47.4 33.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.3 29.8
Points From Free Throws 13.2 15.7
Shooting UALR ARST
Field Goals Made 29.1 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.0 63.9
Field Goal % 47.0% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 23.7 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 47.1 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 14.8 28.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 13.2 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 22.3
Free Throw % 73.1% 70.2%
Ball Control UALR ARST
Rebounds 37.1 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 13.8
Turnovers 9.9 9.1
Blocked Shots 5.3 4.1
Steals 4.7 4.8
Fouls 14.0 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR ARST
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 77.0
% of Possessions with UALR ARST
2 Point Attempt 55.9% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 17.6% 32.7%
Player Fouled 19.5% 19.4%
Turnover 13.7% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR ARST
Shot Blocked 6.6% 8.8%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 34.0%