NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UALR M-OH
Points 71.1 68.4
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 27.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.5 26.7
Points From Free Throws 12.4 13.8
Shooting UALR M-OH
Field Goals Made 26.4 22.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 56.1
Field Goal % 45.1% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 14.0
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 31.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 44.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.2 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 12.4 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 19.2
Free Throw % 73.1% 71.5%
Ball Control UALR M-OH
Rebounds 39.7 30.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 7.3
Turnovers 12.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.6
Steals 5.5 5.7
Fouls 16.0 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: AR Lit Rock

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UALR M-OH
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 69.7 67.2
% of Possessions with UALR M-OH
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.0% 30.6%
Player Fouled 19.5% 22.6%
Turnover 17.2% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UALR M-OH
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 32.0% 20.2%