NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TROY ULM
Points 81.2 69.0
Total Points   150.2
Points From 2-Pointers 30.3 36.7
Points From 3-Pointers 31.2 14.6
Points From Free Throws 19.7 17.7
Shooting TROY ULM
Field Goals Made 25.5 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.9 54.3
Field Goal % 47.4% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.2 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 27.2 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 55.8% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 26.8 15.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 32.1%
Free Throws Made 19.7 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 26.9 26.5
Free Throw % 73.4% 66.8%
Ball Control TROY ULM
Rebounds 34.8 34.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.5 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 11.7
Turnovers 12.2 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 1.8
Steals 8.7 7.3
Fouls 18.4 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: UL Monroe

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TROY ULM
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.0 71.2
% of Possessions with TROY ULM
2 Point Attempt 32.4% 45.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 17.7%
Player Fouled 24.4% 25.3%
Turnover 16.7% 18.4%
Opponent Steal 10.1% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TROY ULM
Shot Blocked 3.4% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 31.5% 32.3%