NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTAH CAL
Points 81.4 74.3
Total Points   155.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 35.4
Points From 3-Pointers 30.0 26.9
Points From Free Throws 11.6 12.0
Shooting UTAH CAL
Field Goals Made 29.9 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 63.5 67.1
Field Goal % 47.0% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 17.7
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 39.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 27.5
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 11.6 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 16.5
Free Throw % 63.4% 73.2%
Ball Control UTAH CAL
Rebounds 41.4 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 32.5 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 10.0
Turnovers 9.4 8.5
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.7
Steals 4.6 5.4
Fouls 13.5 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Utah

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTAH CAL
Total Possessions 75.1
Effective Scoring Chances 74.6 76.6
% of Possessions with UTAH CAL
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 31.7%
Player Fouled 20.0% 17.9%
Turnover 12.5% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTAH CAL
Shot Blocked 4.1% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 23.5%