NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IDHO ARST
Points 67.9 79.2
Total Points   147.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 25.6
Points From Free Throws 10.9 15.7
Shooting IDHO ARST
Field Goals Made 25.1 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 58.9
Field Goal % 43.2% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.4 23.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 10.9 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 22.4
Free Throw % 74.3% 70.2%
Ball Control IDHO ARST
Rebounds 30.1 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 11.7
Turnovers 9.5 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.6 5.2
Steals 4.3 5.4
Fouls 14.9 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IDHO ARST
Total Possessions 68.8
Effective Scoring Chances 65.9 72.3
% of Possessions with IDHO ARST
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 43.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 28.9%
Player Fouled 19.7% 21.6%
Turnover 13.9% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken IDHO ARST
Shot Blocked 8.9% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 19.4% 33.2%