NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW RMU
Points 69.3 65.7
Total Points   135.0
Points From 2-Pointers 33.2 33.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 20.1
Points From Free Throws 15.1 11.7
Shooting MW RMU
Field Goals Made 23.6 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.6 58.0
Field Goal % 44.1% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.6 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 32.0 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 15.1 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.1 16.7
Free Throw % 74.8% 69.8%
Ball Control MW RMU
Rebounds 27.7 42.1
Rebounds - Defensive 21.7 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.0 15.4
Turnovers 11.0 15.5
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.9
Steals 8.7 4.9
Fouls 12.8 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW RMU
Total Possessions 70.6
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 70.5
% of Possessions with MW RMU
2 Point Attempt 41.1% 42.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 23.8%
Player Fouled 22.9% 18.2%
Turnover 15.6% 22.0%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 12.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW RMU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 18.2% 41.5%