NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HAW ILL
Points 69.7 83.7
Total Points   153.4
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 47.2
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 17.8
Points From Free Throws 12.6 18.7
Shooting HAW ILL
Field Goals Made 25.4 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 58.5
Field Goal % 43.2% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 23.6
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 12.6 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 25.4
Free Throw % 72.5% 73.8%
Ball Control HAW ILL
Rebounds 30.1 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 9.8
Turnovers 9.4 7.3
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.0
Steals 3.1 4.3
Fouls 17.9 13.9

Playing Style Advantage: Hawaii

Expected Effect: +1.0 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HAW ILL
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 73.9
% of Possessions with HAW ILL
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 50.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 20.8%
Player Fouled 19.5% 25.0%
Turnover 13.1% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 4.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken HAW ILL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.6% 29.8%