NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MW SFPA
Points 69.7 58.3
Total Points   128.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 32.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 14.7
Points From Free Throws 15.1 11.3
Shooting MW SFPA
Field Goals Made 23.7 21.1
Field Goals Attempted 51.5 53.2
Field Goal % 46.0% 39.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 29.9 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 42.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 15.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 15.1 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 18.8
Free Throw % 74.8% 60.1%
Ball Control MW SFPA
Rebounds 28.9 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.5 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.4 13.6
Turnovers 11.5 15.9
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.5
Steals 8.8 5.6
Fouls 14.0 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MW SFPA
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.4 66.1
% of Possessions with MW SFPA
2 Point Attempt 39.2% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 18.2%
Player Fouled 24.2% 20.5%
Turnover 16.8% 23.3%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 12.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MW SFPA
Shot Blocked 6.8% 9.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 37.7%