NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PEPP USC
Points 67.5 78.5
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 42.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 21.0
Points From Free Throws 13.0 14.8
Shooting PEPP USC
Field Goals Made 23.4 28.4
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 56.0
Field Goal % 40.4% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 38.7
2 Point Shooting % 42.3% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 40.6%
Free Throws Made 13.0 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 21.3
Free Throw % 69.8% 69.5%
Ball Control PEPP USC
Rebounds 32.8 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 8.5
Turnovers 12.1 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.1
Steals 4.9 6.9
Fouls 15.7 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PEPP USC
Total Possessions 71.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 69.2
% of Possessions with PEPP USC
2 Point Attempt 44.9% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 21.3%
Player Fouled 21.7% 21.9%
Turnover 16.9% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken PEPP USC
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.4% 27.1%